Opinion

Stats blast: Stranger things have happened (Updated March 7th)

Neil Redfearn - Leeds Salute
Written by Simon O'Rourke

With Leeds United averaging 1.9 points per game in 2015, just how far can this Leeds United Team go? Simon O’Rourke takes a look at the stats

February 10th, 2015

If you’re not a fan of late-night (or daytime, for that matter) positivity, then this may not be the post for you. Go ahead, click on “close tab”, I won’t be offended.

Still here? Good. Let’s take a very brief look at 2015 for Leeds United up to February 11th:

Games Played: 6, Games Won: 3, Games drawn: 2, Games lost: 1 (thanks, Mr. Salisbury), Average points per game: 1.9

As of March 7th 2015

2015 PPG: 2.05
Playoff form PPG: 2.3
Predicted finish: 8th
(PPG: Points Per Game)

Why the statistical breakdown, you ask? With Leeds United currently sitting on 35 points for the season, a highest possible points tally for The Whites this season is 83. Let’s be brutally honest, we aren’t getting 83 points. Looking at the form for 2015 thus far, however, and you’d be forgiven for seeing just a glimmer of optimism.

Should Leeds continue their current form, they would finish with a points total of 65 points (16 x 1.9=30.4), which is typically good enough for a top ten finish. For me, this season is all about finishing as far away from the relegation zone as possible in order to build a proper platform for taking a good run at promotion next season. There’s always the “what if…” scenario, of course, and that’s where this post comes in.

In the 2012/2013 season, Leicester City made it to The Playoffs with a points total of 68, though the average points tally required is 71. Leeds United finishing on 65 points would of course leave the club three points shy of that marker set by Leicester City. This is where games like Brentford were so massive; imagine for a moment that Leeds won that game. How does 14 points from a possible 18 sound? Well, folks, that would be Playoff form (again: Thanks, Mr. Salisbury)

Let’s simplify this, and go for pure 2015 predictive stats:

If Leeds United maintain their 2015 form, they will finish the 2014/2015 season on 65 points.

Let’s take a look at the remaining fixtures, and allow ourselves to wonder if the marker of 68 points is at all possible. I’ve denoted in brackets what I believe the result will be and also how each month could realistically play out points wise. I’m feeling positive, endulge me.

February

Sat 14th February
Leeds United vs Millwall (Win)
Sat 21st February
Middlesbrough vs Leeds United (Loss)
Tue 24th February
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Leeds United (Draw)
Sat 28th February
Leeds United vs Watford (Draw)

Predicted points tally: 40

March

Wed 4th March
Leeds United vs Ipswich Town (Win)
Sat 7th March
Wigan Athletic vs Leeds United (Win)
Sat 14th March
Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest (Draw)
Wed 18th March
Fulham vs Leeds United (Draw)
Sat 21st March
Blackpool vs Leeds United (Win)

Predicted points tally at close of March: 51

April

Sat 4th April
Leeds United vs Blackburn Rovers (Win)
Mon 6th April
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Leeds United (Draw)
Sat 11th April
Leeds United vs Cardiff City (Win)
Tue 14th April
Leeds United vs Norwich City (Win)
Sat 18th April
Charlton Athletic vs Leeds United (Win)
Sat 25th April
Sheffield Wednesday vs Leeds United (Draw)

Predicted points tally at close of April: 65

May

Sat 2nd May
Leeds United vs Rotherham United (Win)

Final points prediction: 68

It may seem like a pipe-dream, and it probably is, but none of the fixtures above that are denoted as wins seem all that unattainable. I have Leeds dropping fifteen points in sixteen games, but if Leeds United are within ten points of a playoff spot with ten games to go (and stats say they will be there or thereabouts), I know where my money is going.

With all that said, a playoff spot may well turn out to require a lot more points than is possible. At very worst, a continuance of the 2015 form can only be a massive positive for Leeds United Football Club, and it will be a pre-season of hype rather than a dampening of the mood.

Join in the positivity, and check back here (don’t worry, I’ll remind you) to see just how Leeds United’s Points Per Game average is stacking up. This post will maintain and update the statistics after each game.

Let’s start by beating Millwall, and sending a message to the rest of the League. Leeds United aren’t here to the season with a whimper, but with a bang.

About the author

Simon O'Rourke

A lifelong Leeds United fan, Simon moved to Nova Scotia in 2002. Married for seven years with three children, Simon's first love has always been Leeds United. Simon is the owner of 1919 Media, a website design and development company whose name is a homage to Leeds United.

  • laupall

    41 points and still got 2 games left in February which are winnable. Maybe a pipe dream but if we can keep this run going, play offs could be within our grasp!

  • Jimidodgya

    Shame this didnt come to fruition (love the optimism though) and whose to say what could happen in the future)